Hey, executive! Do you know where your next euro of growth will come from?
Growth is often sought from new customers, even though a significant share of unidentified potential may already lie within your own customer base. Transactional data and customer base analysis help identify where the growth potential lies. An arbitrage model helps choose which commercial actions are worth using to capture that potential. This is how customer understanding turns into strategic choices and measurable growth.
Leading growth starts with the customer base, not the campaign calendar. Customer base analysis answers four questions for executives: which customers generate the greatest lifetime value, which have growth potential, which are about to churn and which are not worth investing in right now.
The answers can be found in actual behaviour, in other words in transactional data: purchases, orders, contract renewals and campaign responses. The decades-old RFM model (recency, frequency, monetary value) is still at the core of most customer base analyses, because these three figures predict future behaviour surprisingly well.
Where should you invest?
Once the potential has been located, you have to choose where to invest. The arbitrage model compares the possible commercial actions for each customer or segment and prioritises them based on expected value: probability of response × expected incremental value − cost of execution.
The principle of the arbitrage model is simple: for each customer, you calculate what different actions are likely to generate and what they cost, and choose the one with the greatest expected value. The campaign no longer chooses the customers; instead, the customer’s probabilities choose the actions.
Miikka Rahikainen, Martech & AI DirectorThe model guides the use of four commercial levers: sell more, increase loyalty, sell at a higher price or acquire new customers based on the behavioural characteristics of valuable existing customers. Choosing not to make contact can also be an informed strategic choice that saves money and respects the customer’s attention.
Strategy is also about choosing what not to do. When you know which customers your next euro of growth will come from, you also know where the euro is not worth putting. Sometimes the best decision for both the customer and the margin is not to make contact.
Sirpa Toljander, CX DirectorHow is potential turned into growth?
Value is only created through the right actions. The choices are carried into CRM, marketing automation, sales priorities and customer management models, and the results are measured by purchase frequency, customer retention, customer value and margin. Every action generates new behavioural data that refines the next choices. In this way, customer base analysis becomes a continuously learning management model, not a one-off report.
The best outcome is understanding: knowing where the value of the customer base comes from and what is worth doing with it next. It changes the entire way of thinking about customer value.
Miikka Rahikainen, AI&Martech Director, DagmarWhere should you start?
You don’t need perfect data to get started. A transaction history that can be linked to the customer, a clear business question and a readiness to make choices are enough.
In an article published on the ASML website, we use examples to walk through what transactional data looks like, how RFM segmentation is done and how the arbitrage model chooses the right action for each customer.
Read the full article on ASML.fi (in Finnish)
Do you know which customers, customer journey touchpoints and commercial actions your company’s next euro of growth will come from? Get in touch, and let’s find out together.
AUTHOR
CX Director
Sirpa Toljander is Customer Experience Director at Dagmar and a doctoral researcher specializing in customer experience management, participatory design methods, and design thinking. Her research and professional work examine how organizations can create business value through deeper customer understanding, human-centered innovation, and evidence-based development.
Sirpa is particularly interested in the interplay between customers, organizations, and emerging technologies, exploring how artificial intelligence, co-creation, and design-driven approaches can enhance customer experiences, organizational capabilities, and business outcomes.
Tutustu muihin aiheen artikkeleihimme
-
AI doesn’t make growth intelligent, people doAI multiplies what a company is able to produce. However, it does not tell you…Read the blog -
Why do we need AIX alongside CX and UX?It is no longer only people who move along customer journeys, but also their AI…Read the blog -
Is retail media making its way onto the brand marketer’s table?IAB Finland organised the Retail Media Summit on 2 September 2026, bringing together a wide…Read the blog